12 Chapters
Medium 9781780644639

5 Climate Change and Food Security in Asia and Africa: Agricultural Futures

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5

Climate Change and Food Security in Asia and Africa: Agricultural

Futures

S. Nedumaran,* P. Jyosthnaa, N.P. Singh, C. Bantilan and K. Byjesh

International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics

(ICRISAT), Hyderabad, India

Abstract

This chapter presents the regional level (Asia and Africa) projected impacts of climate change on yield, production, prices, net trade of major crops and food security through to 2050. It also presents the modelling framework that integrates the economic, crop and climate models to assess the impact of climate change scenarios and socioeconomic pathways in 2050 at the country level.

5.1 Introduction

Climate change, in terms of both climate means and variability, poses a great threat to the resource-poor farmers the world over, especially in the tropics and semi-arid tropics.

The possible impacts include reduced yields, lower farm incomes and reduced welfare. There is increasing awareness of these threats among national and international governments.

Agriculture is vulnerable to climate change in a number of dimensions. Higher temperatures eventually reduce yields and tend to encourage weed and pest proliferation. Greater variations in precipitation patterns increase the likelihood of short-run crop failures and long-term production declines.

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Medium 9781780644639

12 Way Forward – Towards Climate Resilience

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12

Way Forward – Towards Climate

Resilience

N.P. Singh,* C. Bantilan, K. Byjesh and

S. Nedumaran

International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid

Tropics (ICRISAT), Hyderabad, India

Abstract

This chapter sketches out the intervention needs from the evidence evolved from the comprehensive analysis described in the previous chapters. The authors argue that there are innumerable entry points for interventions that should be in place through policies, and programmes to create an enabling environment to adapt effectively among the rural population in the arid and semi-arid tropics. This chapter summarizes the critical areas identified within the sustainable livelihood framework that has to be promoted relentlessly until the very objective of enhancing resilience is achieved. The current policies and support are blanket in nature and they resonate a high disconnect because they are aggregative, top down, highly macro-level approaches. Furthermore, they are often coupled with uncertainties and information gaps, thereby vitiating the mainstreaming of adaptation options that is crucial for these marginal environments of the developing world. A comprehensive policy recommendation will be discussed with reference to contexts of Asia and Africa.

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10 Policy Options Towards Climate Resilience: Agent-based Assessment of Farm Households in West Africa

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10

Policy Options Towards Climate

Resilience: Agent-based

Assessment of Farm

Households in West Africa

T. Wossen,1* S. Nedumaran2 and T. Berger3

1International

Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) Hanoi,

Vietnam; 2International Crops Research Institute for the

Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT), Hyderabad, India; 3Institute of

Agricultural Economics and Social Sciences in the Tropics and

Subtropics, University of Hohenheim, Stuttgart, Germany

Abstract

This chapter will present the impacts of farm-level adaptation strategies on farm household income and food security under the changing climate in Northern region of Ghana using a bio-economic modelling approach. The modeling approach captures the heterogeneity of important resources of farm households such as access to credits, irrigation and non-farm income sources under the context of climatic change.

10.1 Introduction

While reducing poverty and ensuring food security is a major priority of many governments of developing countries, the complex and ever-changing impacts of climate variability coupled with dependencies on weather-sensitive agriculture has become a major threat for poverty and food insecurity reduction efforts. According to the Food and

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11 Moving Along Adaptation Pathways Toward Grass-root Resilience: A Synthesis

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11

Moving Along Adaptation

Pathways Toward Grass-root

Resilience: A Synthesis

N.P. Singh,1* C. Bantilan,1 K. Byjesh,1

S. Nedumaran,1 V.U.M. Rao,2 B. Venkateswarulu,2

F. Niranjan,3 W. Jayatilaka,1 U.K. Deb,1 P.Q. Ha4 and P. Suddhiyam5

1International

Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics

(ICRISAT), Hyderabad, India; 2Central Research Institute for

Dryland Agriculture, Hyderabad, India; 3Sri Lanka Council for

Agricultural Research Policy, Colombo, Sri Lanka; 4Vietnam

Academy of Agriculture Sciences (VAAS), Hanoi, Vietnam;

5Department of Agriculture, Bangkok, Thailand

Abstract

This chapter reports on cross-country evidence from the micro (farm-level) analysis on impacts, adaptation and vulnerability to the ever-rising climate-related risks. It has also identified the common challenges across countries, as well as unique features within regions, countries and continents. The challenges include excessive stress on natural capital, increasing demand for physical and financial resources and social capital. Through extensive data collection and analysis it also identifies deficiencies in future planning and country-specific strategies, policies and programmes. These deficiencies and their implications for the future on the farm households are highlighted comprehensively in these selected countries of Asia and Africa.

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1 Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Strategies at Farm-level: A Retrospection

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1

Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Strategies at

Farm-level: A Retrospection

N.P. Singh,* K. Byjesh and C. Bantilan

International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics

(ICRISAT), Hyderabad, India

Abstract

This chapter introduces current and future climatic implication on national, regional and sub-regional agro-socioeconomy. It focuses on the growing recognition of the climate change studies that are being considered inevitable.

Authors argue that better understanding and assessment of adaptation and/or coping strategies at farm-level are prerequisite in the long-term development planning of the country or the region towards climate resiliency. The arguments were put forward to emphasize the vital link between agriculture, rural livelihoods and climate in the semi-arid tropics for the majority of the population in Asia and Africa. This chapter confines itself to various discourses on the past and present efforts on assessing impacts, adaptation and vulnerability to climate change particularly in the semi-arid tropics of Asia and Africa. It also discusses the global efforts on improving resilience against climatic risks in agricultural sector and also poor smallholder farmers of the semi-arid tropics. The chapter briefly reviews the current state of knowledge related to farmers’ strategies and determinants of decision in the choice of adaptation at farm-level. The chapter further discusses the organization of the book and also identifies potential uses of the book and the audience for whom this information is valuable.

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