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Invasive Species and Global Climate Change

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This book examines what will happen to global invasive species, including plants, animals and pathogens with current and expected man-made climate change. The effects on distribution, success, spread and impact of invasive species are considered for a series of case studies from a number of countries. This book will be of great value to researchers, policymakers and industry in responding to changing management needs.

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1 Introduction

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1

Introduction

Jeffrey S. Dukes1 and Lewis H. Ziska2

1Department

of Forestry and Natural Resources & Department of

Biological Sciences, Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana,

USA; 2Crop Systems and Global Change Laboratory, USDA-ARS,

Beltsville, Maryland, USA

As we write this, the global population has reached 7.1 billion. At present rates, approximately 5 million new individuals will be added each month, every month, for the foreseeable future. (www.census.gov/ popclock).

Ultimately, it is our rapidly increasing population and our need to increase the production of food, feed, fibre and fuel from a finite set of natural resources that are driving the environmental issues in this book, and that give these issues urgency. We need to transition to a sustainable society if we are to provide for this population (or even a smaller one) into the future. Such sustainability is necessary if we are to preserve our planet’s ecosystem services, maintain its capacity to produce food and protect its biodiversity.

 

2 Communicating the Dynamic Complexities of Climate and Ecology: Species Invasion and Resource Changes

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2

Communicating the Dynamic

Complexities of Climate and

Ecology: Species Invasion and

Resource Changes

John Peter Thompson1 and Lewis H. Ziska2

1US

National Invasive Species Advisory Committee, Washington,

DC, USA, and Consultant – Bioeconomic Policy, Prince George’s

County, Maryland, USA; 2Crop Systems and Global Change

Laboratory, USDA-ARS, Beltsville, Maryland, USA

Les hommes ont oublié cette vérité, dit le renard. Mais tu ne dois pas l’oublier. Tu deviens responsable pour toujours de ce que tu as apprivoisé.1

The saddest aspect of life right now is that science gathers knowledge faster than society gathers wisdom.

(Asimov and Shulman, 1988)

Abstract

As the population reaches beyond 7 billion, the impact of human activities on the global environment will begin to alter substantially the complex biological systems necessary to support life. Of particular concern are anthropogenic changes in atmospheric composition that are altering the climatic processes associated with precipitation, temperature and weather disruptions.

 

3 Climate Change and Plant Pathogen Invasions

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3

Climate Change and Plant

Pathogen Invasions

Karen A. Garrett,1,3 Sara Thomas-Sharma,1 Greg A.

Forbes2 and John Hernandez Nopsa1,3

1Department

of Plant Pathology, Kansas State University,

Manhattan, Kansas, USA; 2International Potato Center, Beijing,

China; 3Plant Biosecurity Cooperative Research Centre, Bruce,

ACT, Australia

Abstract

Climate Change and Pathogen

Invasions: An Overview

Climate has an important effect on plant disease and the probability of plant pathogen invasions, through effects on hosts and pathogen vectors as well as on the pathogens themselves. Aerially dispersed pathogens are an important group of plant pathogens, and their dispersal and invasion may be modified by changes in wind patterns.

Pathogens vectored by arthropods may be affected by weather impacts on their vectors, often through the filter of vector behaviour.

Soilborne pathogens have more challenges to rapid invasion, but human transport can introduce them quickly into novel settings.

For pathogens, variability within a species may be of great importance, and many important pathogen invasions are invasions of new genotypes of ubiquitous pathogen species. The connectivity of a landscape for pathogen movement is determined by the spatial distribution of host, pathogen and environmental conditions, and connectivity may also be affected by climate change.

 

4 Analysis of Invasive Insects: Links to Climate Change

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4

Analysis of Invasive Insects: Links to Climate Change

Andrew Paul Gutierrez1,2 and Luigi Ponti1,3

1Center

for the Analysis of Sustainable Agricultural Systems

(CASAS Global NGO), Kensington, California, USA; 2Division of

Ecosystem Science, College of Natural Resources, University of

California, Berkeley, California, USA; 3Laboratorio Gestione

Sostenibile degli Agro-Ecosistemi (UTAGRI-ECO), Agenzia

Nazionale per le Nuove Tecnologie, l’Energia e lo Sviluppo

Economico Sostenibile (ENEA), Centro Ricerche Casaccia,

Rome, Italy

Abstract

Climate change is expected to alter the geographic distribution and abundance of many species, to increase the invasion of new areas by exotic species and, in some cases, to lead to species extinction. This chapter reviews some of the links between invasive insects and climate change. The effects of climate change on insect pest populations can be direct, through impacts on their physiology and behaviour, or indirect, through biotic interactions (i.e. bottom-up and top-down effects). Anthropogenic climate and global change is expected to be a major driver in the introduction, establishment, distribution, impact and changes in the efficacy of mitigation strategies for invasive species. To address these problems, we must be able to predict climate change impacts on species distribution and abundance. Commonly used ecological niche modelling approaches have implicit assumptions about the biology of the target species and attempt to characterize the ecological niche using aggregate weather and other factors in the area of recorded distribution.

 

5 Climate Change, Plant Traits and Invasion in Natural and Agricultural Ecosystems

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5

Climate Change, Plant Traits and

Invasion in Natural and

Agricultural Ecosystems

Dana M. Blumenthal and Julie A. Kray

Rangeland Resources Research Unit, USDA-ARS, Fort Collins,

Colorado, USA

Abstract

Invasive plant species often thrive in new and resource-rich environments and may therefore benefit from global changes that create such environments. Global change effects on invasion risk will depend both on the environment in which competition between invasive and resident plant species occurs and on the physiological and life history traits of the competing species. In agricultural environments, risks include the northward movement of many problematic invasive species, decreased biotic resistance to invasion with extreme climatic events and strong global change responses of particular invasive species. However, due to their similar rapid resource acquisition and growth strategies, invasive species and crops may respond similarly to changes that increase resources. Furthermore, management adaptations, such as planting crops or varieties suited to new climate conditions, will help to maintain biotic resistance to invasion in crops. In natural ecosystems, global changes that increase resources rapidly may favour fast-growing invasive plant species and inhibit the slower-growing native species adapted to current climate conditions. In addition, management options to help native species compete with invasive species in novel environments, such as assisted migration, are relatively limited.

 

6 Non-native Species in Antarctic Terrestrial Environments: Th e Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activity

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6

Non-native Species in Antarctic

Terrestrial Environments: The

Impacts of Climate Change and

Human Activity

Kevin A. Hughes and Peter Convey

British Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council,

Cambridge, UK

Abstract

Antarctic terrestrial biodiversity is simple compared to other regions of the Earth, with many higher taxonomic groups not represented, due to the continent’s isolation, the severe climatic conditions and the relative scarcity of suitable habitats. So far, Antarctic biodiversity has been little affected by nonnative species introductions, due to (i) the late arrival of humans on the continent

(c.1820), (ii) the overall low intensity of human activity and (iii) the concentration of most of that activity around a limited number of research stations and tourist sites, such as exist onthe Antarctic Peninsula.

However, human activity is increasing, and

Antarctica is increasingly vulnerable to the human-mediated importation of non-native species and the redistribution of indigenous

 

7 Synergies between Climate Change and Species Invasions: Evidence from Marine Systems

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Synergies between Climate

Change and Species Invasions:

Evidence from Marine Systems

Cascade J.B. Sorte

Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of

California, Irvine, California, USA

Abstract

The hypothesis that climate change will facilitate species invasions has recently received increasing focus in studies of marine systems. Over the past decade, approaches to testing this hypothesis have shifted from time-series observations of concomitant increases in both processes to experimental tests that are beginning to reveal the mechanisms underlying the synergies between these two aspects of global change. The results of many studies conform to expectations that under climate change, invasive species’ abundances, ranges and per capita effects – collectively indicative of invader impacts – will increase. However, there remain significant gaps in our understanding of responses to non-thermal factors (such as changes in ocean pH, dissolved oxygen and storm events) and how species-specific idiosyncrasies will manifest in changes at the community level.

 

8 Ragweed in Eastern Europe

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Ragweed in Eastern Europe

László Makra,1 István Matyasovszky2 and Áron

József Deák3

1Department

of Climatology and Landscape Ecology, University of

Szeged, Szeged, Hungary; 2Department of Meteorology, Eötvös

Loránd University, Budapest, Hungary; 3Department of Physical

Geography and Geoinformatics, University of Szeged, Szeged,

Hungary

Abstract

Ambrosia artemisiifolia, common ragweed, is an invasive plant species whose introduction and spread in Eastern Europe has resulted in enormous environmental and economic losses in agriculture and public health in recent decades. The aim of this chapter is: (i) to provide an overview on the origin and distribution of Ambrosia from North

America to Europe, with special focus on

Eastern Europe, particularly Hungary; and

(ii) to identify and quantify those humanrelated factors on either a regional or global basis that may act to facilitate the spread and pollen production of this plant species.

The chapter shows that socio-economic changes, particularly in agriculture following the fall of the Soviet Union, may be factors in contributing to the degree of soil disturbance necessary for ragweed establishment and spread. In addition, a temporal analysis is conducted of ragweed pollen characteristics and local meteorological factors from Szeged, Hungary (located in the biogeographical region of Hungary with the highest recorded ragweed pollen counts).

 

9 Climate Change and Alien Species in South Africa

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Climate Change and Alien Species in South Africa

Ulrike M. Irlich, David M. Richardson, Sarah J. Davies and Steven L. Chown

Centre for Invasion Biology, Department of Botany and Zoology,

Stellenbosch University, Matieland, South Africa

Abstract

Dedication

South Africa has a long history of humanmediated introductions of species from all major taxonomic groups. Close to 9000 alien terrestrial plant species have been introduced, and all of the country’s biomes have already been invaded. Invasive species are threatening the country’s ecosystems in numerous ways, but the effect of climate change on these invasions is predicted to be complex and cascading and remains poorly understood. The relationship between climate and invasive species biology is well established, and there is no question that climate change will influence the ecology of invasive species significantly. If left unmanaged, these effects are expected to increase substantially. Besides terrestrial plants, numerous animals have also invaded the country’s landscapes. South Africa’s freshwater ecosystems have been invaded by both alien as well as extralimital introductions (indigenous species outside their historical extent of occurrence). The status of invasion in the marine environment remains poorly studied, and knowledge of the status of invasions and predictions regarding the impacts of climate change remain largely speculative. This chapter highlights the current status of invasions in

 

10 Climate Change and ‘Alien Species in National Parks’: Revisited

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10

Climate Change and ‘Alien

Species in National Parks’:

Revisited

Thomas J. Stohlgren,1 Jessica R. Resnik2 and

Glenn E. Plumb2

1US

Geological Survey, Fort Collins Science Center, Fort Collins,

Colorado, USA; 2National Park Service, Biological Resource

Management Division, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA

Abstract

Many units comprising the National Park

Service system in the USA were established to protect native species and historical landscapes and scenery, and to provide public enjoyment of the same, as long as the natural area remained ‘unimpaired for future generations’. However, a growing human population and a global economy have spawned a 40-fold increase in global trade and transportation since 1950. This created what may turn out to be the most significant challenge to Park Service management: the invasion of alien (i.e. exotic, non-native) plants, animals and diseases into ‘protected areas’. Climate change may compound the problem by interacting with other existing ecosystem stressors to affect the distribution, abundance and impact of invasive species.

 

11 Invasive Plants in a Rapidly Changing Climate: An Australian Perspective

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Invasive Plants in a Rapidly

Changing Climate: An Australian

Perspective

Bruce L. Webber,1,2 Rieks D. van Klinken3 and John

K. Scott1

1CSIRO

Ecosystem Sciences and Climate Adaptation Flagship,

Wembley, Western Australia, Australia; 2School of Plant Biology,

The University of Western Australia, Crawley, Western Australia,

Australia; 3CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences, Brisbane, Queensland,

Australia

Abstract

Invasive plants in Australia are currently among the greatest threats to native biological diversity and a significant cost to agriculture. The impact of climate change is projected to be particularly significant for

Australia and will add to and change the impact of invasive plants on natural and managed ecosystems. Australia is a large country incorporating a wide variety of climates that often experience significant disturbance events, is likely to undergo significant land-use change with climate change and has a long history of some

26,000 plant species introductions and about 2700 established alien plant species.

 

12 Invasive Species of China and Th eir Responses to Climate Change

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12

Invasive Species of China and their Responses to Climate

Change

Bo Li, Shujuan Wei, Hui Li, Qiang Yang and Meng

Lu

Coastal Ecosystems Research Station of Yangtze River Estuary,

Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Biodiversity Science and Ecological Engineering, The Institute of Biodiversity Science,

Fudan University, Shanghai, PR China

Abstract

projects on global change could begin to address critical research needs in this area.

China is a rapidly developing country with the largest share of the world’s population.

The extent of human activity, combined with diverse climates and landscapes, may allow for greater risk of biological invasions.

To date, at least 529 invasive species have been identified, including 270 species of higher plants, 198 species of animals and 61 species of microbes, resulting in an estimated annual economic loss of US$18.9 billion.

Evidence to date suggests that different components of climate change (i.e. temperature, altered precipitation, extreme weather events and rising CO2 concentration) have already influenced the biology of invasive species in China. The influence of climate change may increase the negative economic or environmental consequences of some invasives; however, others may become disadvantaged. Although we are still at the earliest stages of understanding the consequences of climate change on invasive species biology, China is one of the countries that may be affected most dramatically by invasive species. Overall, understanding the interactions between climate change and invasive species biology is an important scientific challenge, but one in which

 

13 Identifying Invasive Species in Real Time: Early Detection and Distribution Mapping System (EDDMapS) and Other Mapping Tools

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13

Identifying Invasive Species in

Real Time: Early Detection and

Distribution Mapping System

(EDDMapS) and Other Mapping

Tools

Rebekah D. Wallace and Charles T. Bargeron

Center for Invasive Species and Ecosystem Health, University of

Georgia, Tifton, Georgia, USA

Abstract

Historically, the documentation of native and non-native species distributions was limited to herbarium records, textbooks and field guides. Distribution maps were updated infrequently and the resulting information was often inaccessible. Recently, as public awareness of invasive species has increased, professional and citizen science-based monitoring and management programmes have grown, leading to the collection of large amounts of data across disparate databases.

The central focus of the Early Detection and

Distribution Mapping System (EDDMapS) is to foster the collection, amalgamation and sharing of these data to show a more complete map of the threat of invasive species and how this issue impacts the nation as a whole. Incorporating data from a variety of sources can raise issues with standardization, privacy and ownership, but these issues can be resolved with proper planning and policies regarding data sharing.

 

14 Global Identifi cation of Invasive Species: Th e CABI Invasive Species Compendium as a Resource

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14

Global Identification of Invasive

Species: The CABI Invasive

Species Compendium as a

Resource

Hilda Diaz-Soltero1 and Peter R. Scott2

1USDA, Office of the Secretary, Washington, DC, USA; 2CAB

International, Wallingford, UK

Abstract

Introduction

The number, spread and impact of invasive species in the latter half of the 20th century has been without historical precedent. Now, as human activity causes a precipitous rise in greenhouse gas emissions (e.g. CO2), there is growing concern that climate change may also be a significant, long-term driver enhancing invasive species introduction and spread. New and more powerful tools that facilitate linking invasive species and climate change are required to identify and manage these consequences. One such tool, which exploits a wide range of traditional and social media, is the Invasive Species

Compendium, or ISC. The ISC is a scientific, web-based encyclopedia that compiles the latest information on the invasive species that have the most negative impacts on the environment, the economy and/or animal or human health. The information in the ISC, updated weekly with the latest scientific findings, can be used; to infer future climate change impacts on an invasive species; to understand the potential environmental and/or economic impacts of the species, and to identify ways to control and manage the species in question. This chapter discusses the value and efficacy of the ISC, with a particular emphasis on its application in a globally warmed future.

 

15 The Biogeography of Invasive Plants – Projecting Range Shifts with Climate Change

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The Biogeography of Invasive

Plants – Projecting Range Shifts with Climate Change

Bethany A. Bradley

Environmental Conservation, University of Massachusetts,

Amherst, Massachusetts, USA

Abstract

Correlative models between species occurrences and climate (here referred to as

‘habitat suitability models’) have become increasingly popular for forecasting risk from invasive plants under current and future climate scenarios. These models have the potential to inform management and monitoring efforts by prioritizing landscapes considered at highest risk under a changing climate. However, a wide range of choices regarding climatic predictor variables, modelling approaches and even distributional data sets influences the resulting projections. The effects of these choices are seldom defined explicitly, which reduces their utility for scientists and managers alike. This chapter reviews common practices of habitat suitability modelling as they apply to invasive plants.

The chapter also reviews major findings of recent projections of range shifts in invasive plants. In both cases, the aim is to explore how different choices of predictors, models and input data can influence conclusions in a habitat suitability modelling framework and develop recommendations for best practices.

 

16 Identifying Climate Change as a Factor in the Establishment and Persistence of Invasive Weeds in Agricultural Crops

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Identifying Climate Change as a

Factor in the Establishment and

Persistence of Invasive Weeds in

Agricultural Crops

Antonio DiTommaso,1 Qin Zhong2 and David R.

Clements3

1Department

of Crop and Soil Sciences, Cornell University,

Ithaca, New York, USA; 2Department of Ecology, College of

Agriculture, South China Agricultural University, Guangzhou,

China; 3Biology Department, Trinity Western University, Langley,

British Columbia, Canada

Abstract

Climate change may lead to extensive shifts in invasive weed distributions by impacting their colonization and persistence in new habitats. These alterations will require an enhanced capacity to predict the future range of these species and the implementation of effective management strategies.

This is particularly critical for agroecosystems where climate-induced changes in the composition and impact of weedy species are likely to add great uncertainty to the biodiversity, stability and productivity of these systems. In recent years, various modelling approaches have been employed to examine the current and potential distributions of invasive weeds at a range of scales in response to projected climate change. This chapter details the efforts under way to map the distributions of invasive weed species based on climate change projections for the USA. The chapter also identifies specific agricultural systems that are most vulnerable to invasion in a changing climate. It concludes with a brief discussion of the uncertainties, future directions and challenges of current modelling approaches and

 

17 Assessing and Managing the Impact of Climate Change on Invasive Species: Th e PBDM Approach

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17

Assessing and Managing the

Impact of Climate Change on

Invasive Species: The PBDM

Approach

Andrew Paul Gutierrez1,2 and Luigi Ponti1,3

1Center

for the Analysis of Sustainable Agricultural Systems

(CASAS Global NGO), Kensington, California, USA; 2Division of

Ecosystem Science, College of Natural Resources, University of California, Berkeley, California, USA; 3Laboratorio Gestione

Sostenibile degli Agro-Ecosistemi (UTAGRI-ECO), Agenzia

Nazionale per le Nuove Tecnologie, l’Energia e lo Sviluppo

Economico Sostenibile (ENEA), Centro Ricerche Casaccia,

Rome, Italy

Abstract

Assessing the geographic distribution and abundance of invasive species is critical for developing sound management and/or eradication policies. Ecological niche modelling approaches (ENMs) that make implicit assumptions about biology and mathematics are commonly used to predict the potential distribution of invasive species based on their recorded distribution. An alternative approach is physiologically based demographic modelling (PBDM), which explicitly incorporates the mathematics and the observed biology, including trophic interactions, to predict the temporal phenology and dynamics of a species across wide geographic areas. The invasive weed, yellow starthistle (YST) (Centaurea solstitialis), and its interactions with annual grasses and herbivorous biological control agents is used to demonstrate the utility of the PBDM approach for analysing complex invasive species problems. The PBDM predicts the distribution and relative abundance of YST accurately across the western USA, and the results are used to assess the effects of

 

18 Climate, CO[(sub)2] and Invasive Weed Management

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Climate, CO2 and Invasive Weed

Management

Lewis H. Ziska

Crop Systems and Global Change Laboratory, USDA-ARS,

Beltsville, Maryland, USA

Abstract

Introduction

Given the economic and environmental harm caused by invasive weeds, one of the fundamental objectives of weed biologists is to manage invasive populations in order to minimize their impact following introduction. At present, in most developed countries, chemical application remains the principal means of management regarding spread and impact. Yet, it is becoming increasingly clear that there are a number of direct and indirect effects between climate change and rising carbon dioxide levels

[CO2] that are likely to alter herbicide efficacy. For those data that suggest a reduction in effectiveness, primarily with rising CO2 levels, there are several (as yet untested) possible physiological and/or physical mechanisms. At present, it appears that a single ubiquitous explanation for reduced efficacy in the context of climate change is unlikely. A number of alternative non-chemical weed control methods are available, and a combination of available management methods under the rubric of integrated pest management may provide a robust strategy to minimize climate change/

 

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