Medium 9781780642895

Climate Change Impact and Adaptation in Agricultural Systems. 5. CABI Climate Change Series

Views: 911
Ratings: (0)

The focus of this book is future global climate change and its implications for agricultural systems which are the main sources of agricultural goods and services provided to society. These systems are either based on crop or livestock production, or on combinations of the two, with characteristics that differ between regions and between levels of management intensity. In turn, they also differ in their sensitivity to projected future changes in climate, and improvements to increase climate-resilience need to be tailored to the specific needs of each system. The book will bring together a series of chapters that provide scientific insights to possible implications of projected climate changes for different important types of crop and livestock systems, and a discussion of options for adaptive and mitigative management.

List price: $160.00

Your Price: $128.00

You Save: 20%

Remix
Remove
 

17 Slices

Format Buy Remix

1 Climate Projections for 2050

PDF

1

Climate Projections for 2050

Markku Rummukainen

Centre for Environmental and Climate Research, Lund University,

Sweden

1.1 Introduction

In order to assess the implications of climate change in terms of impacts and adaptation needs, projections of the future climate are needed. Climate models are the primary means of such simulations. The results are often coined ‘climate scenarios’ but should really be called projections, as they are built on alternative scenarios of future land-use changes and greenhouse gas emissions. The basis for climate projections is discussed in this chapter, together with a selection of general results that are of key relevance for agriculture, which stem from state-of-theart climate projections. This chapter provides the background for the subsequent chapters in this book, and discusses climate projections for the next few decades. While the focus is on the period until 2050, it should be noted that climate change will very likely continue well beyond the middle of the 21st century. Indeed, the long-term prospects are about not only a changed climate but also a climate that is changing over time, i.e. it is about continuous change over a long time.

 

2 Rainfed Intensive Crop Systems

PDF

2

Rainfed Intensive Crop Systems

Jørgen E. Olesen

Aarhus University, Department of Agroecology, Tjele, Denmark

2.1 Introduction

Intensive crop production systems are widespread in regions with sufficient rainfall during the growing season and/or with deep soils that provide sufficient water supply for crop growth. Examples of such regions are central and north-west Europe (Olesen and

Bindi, 2002), the US Midwest (Rosenzweig et al., 2002), parts of the North China Plain

(Piao et al., 2010) and areas of Brazil and

Argentina (Monfreda et al., 2008). The intensive rainfed crop production systems contribute considerably to world supply of food and feed, in particular through the production of cereal grains (e.g. wheat, maize and barley) and protein and oilseed crops (e.g. soybean, oilseed rape and sunflower). These crop products are used primarily for human consumption and livestock feed, in particular for monogastric livestock such as pigs and poultry but also for concentrate in intensive ruminant livestock systems, such as dairy farming and feedlot beef production systems. Recently, an increasing proportion of maize in the

 

3 Climate Sensitivity of Intensive Rice–Wheat Systems in Tropical Asia:Focus on the Indo-Gangetic Plains

PDF

3

Climate Sensitivity of Intensive

Rice–Wheat Systems in Tropical

Asia: Focus on the Indo-Gangetic

Plains

Anil Kumar Singh1 and Himanshu Pathak2

Indian Council of Agricultural Research, IARI Campus, New Delhi,

India; 1RVS Agricultural University, Gwalior, India; 2Centre for

Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture, Indian

Agricultural Research Institute, New Delhi, India

3.1 Introduction

Climatic variability and changes over tropical Asia are of major global concern because of the high population density in the region. Rural populations of this vast continent depend on agriculture for sustenance and are often vulnerable to both the direct impacts of adverse climatic events and the indirect effects of the unpredictability of the climate. Many critical agricultural decisions, ranging from farm to policy level, interact with the climate but must be made several months before the impacts of the climate are realized. Decision makers must, therefore, prepare for the range of possibilities and employ conservative risk management strategies that reduce the negative impacts of climatic extremes. These strategies may be at the expense of reduced average productivity and profitability, inefficient use of resources and accelerated natural resource degradation due, for example, to low investment in soil fertility inputs or conservation measures.

 

4 Climate Change Challenges for Low-Input Cropping and Grazing Systems – Australia

PDF

4

Climate Change Challenges for

Low-Input Cropping and Grazing

Systems – Australia

Steven Crimp,1 Mark Howden,1 Chris Stokes,2

Serena Schroeter3 and Brian Keating4

1CSIRO

Climate Adaptation Flagship and Ecosystem Sciences,

Canberra, ACT, Australia; 2CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship and

Ecosystem Sciences, Aitkenvale, Queensland, Australia; 3CSIRO

Climate Adaptation Flagship, Highett, Victoria, Australia; 4CSIRO

Sustainable Agriculture Flagship, Ecosciences Precinct, Brisbane,

Queensland, Australia

4.1 Introduction

Low-input farming systems have been defined as systems that seek to optimize the management and use of internal production inputs (i.e. on-farm resources) and to minimize the use of production inputs (i.e. off-farm resources), such as purchased fertilizers and pesticides (Parr et al., 1990).

In environments with high climatic risk, this is often undertaken when practicable, to lower production costs, reduce overall farm risk and to increase both short- and longterm farm profitability (Parr et al., 1990). In practice, the term ‘low input’ relates to purchasing fewer off-farm inputs (usually fertilizers and pesticides), while increasing on-farm inputs (i.e. manures, cover crops and especially management). Thus, a more accurate term would be different input or low external input rather than low-input farming

 

5 Diversity in Organic and Agroecological Farming Systems for Mitigation of Climate Change Impact, with Examples from Latin America

PDF

5

Diversity in Organic and

Agroecological Farming Systems for Mitigation of Climate Change

Impact, with Examples from Latin

America

Walter A.H. Rossing,1 Pablo Modernel1,2 and Pablo A.

Tittonell1

1Farming

Systems Ecology, Wageningen University, Wageningen, the Netherlands; 2Facultad Agronomía, Universidad de la República,

Montevideo, Uruguay

5.1 Introduction

As the largest global land use, agriculture both contributes to, and is affected by, climate change. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

(IPCC, 2007), global warming causing climate change is due to anthropogenic greenhouse gases. Among these, agriculture is the major source of CH4 and N2O, and a lesser source of CO2. The emissions directly emitted by agriculture have been estimated in the fourth IPCC Assessment Report as together constituting 10–12% (5.1–6.1 Gt) of total annual emissions in CO2 equivalents.

A recent overview of indirect emissions resulting from land clearing for agricultural use estimated these to contribute another

 

6 UK Fruit and Vegetable Production – Impacts of Climate Change and Opportunities for Adaptation

PDF

6

UK Fruit and Vegetable Production

– Impacts of Climate Change and

Opportunities for Adaptation

Rosemary Collier1 and Mark A. Else2

1Warwick

Crop Centre, School of Life Sciences, University of

Warwick, Wellesbourne, Warwick, UK; 2East Malling Research, East

Malling, Kent, UK

6.1 Introduction

6.2 Fruit Production

Outdoor horticultural crops grown in the

UK are particularly sensitive to changes in climate due to the impact of increasing temperatures, changing rainfall patterns and increased frequency of extreme events

(Knox et al., 2010a). It is clear that climate change will offer both opportunities and threats to UK horticultural production

(Knox et al., 2010b). The complex interactions between the variables make accurate predictions of the effects of climate change on agricultural and horticultural production notoriously difficult, and recent predictions in the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment

(CCRA) published in January 2012 (CCRA,

2012) have stimulated much debate (e.g.

Knox and Wade, 2012; Semenov et al., 2012).

 

7 Intensive Livestock Systems for Dairy Cows

PDF

7

Intensive Livestock Systems for

Dairy Cows

Robert J. Collier, Laun W. Hall and John F. Smith*

University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, USA

7.1 Introduction

The objectives of intensive livestock systems are to take advantage of scale effects to maximize profitability, to provide a uniform thermoneutral environment and consistent nutrition in order to maximize production output and to reduce the impacts of adverse environmental conditions. The use of intensive livestock systems is increasing, and will continue to do so for the immediate future because they are essential to achieving increases in animal productivity. However, the proper construction and management of these systems presents several challenges to producers, who must consider several factors including management of the microenvironments inside the facility, maximizing the efficiency of the labour, capital and nutrients required, as well as waste disposal in the form of waste water and manure.

There is now a strong scientific consensus that climate change is occurring and it is projected that the global average temperature will likely rise an additional 1.1–

 

8 Climate Change and Integrated Crop–Livestock Systems in Temperate-Humid Regions of North and South America: Mitigation and Adaptation

PDF

8

Climate Change and Integrated

Crop–Livestock Systems in

Temperate-Humid Regions of

North and South America:

Mitigation and Adaptation

Alan J. Franzluebbers

USDA – Agricultural Research Service, Raleigh, North Carolina,

USA

8.1 Introduction

Integrated crop–livestock systems represent a diversity of agricultural approaches used for various reasons, but which can be characterized as mixing crop production aspects with animal production aspects. In contrast, specialized agricultural systems focus production on a single or a few species, whether for maize–soybean grain production in the Midwestern region of the USA, for small grain production in the Great Plains, for vegetable production in the Central

Valley of California, for beef finishing in the

High Plains of Texas, or for dairy production in the Upper Midwest and north-eastern

USA.

Climate change can affect integrated crop–livestock systems in a similar way to specialized agricultural systems, but such mixed production systems offer some alternatives both to mitigate and to adapt to climate change, resulting in potentially less severe devastating effects on farm- and national-scale agricultural production outcomes. The attributes of integrated crop– livestock systems will be discussed in later sections.

 

9 Land Managed for Multiple Services

PDF

9

Land Managed for Multiple

Services

Richard Aspinall

James Hutton Institute, Craigiebuckler, Aberdeen, UK

9.1 Introduction

Land systems and their dynamics are managed to provide a variety of ecosystem services used by individuals and society. This chapter uses examples from agricultural land use to examine the nature and sources of the multiple goods and services produced by land systems as a set of services that are directly influenced by land management.

First, the global-scale and scope of land change and pressures on land are reviewed briefly; this reveals the extent of the impacts of management on the global system. Second, the specification of land systems as coupled human–environment systems incorporating natural, technological, financial and human capital and flows is emphasized. This system’s formulation supports the analysis and understanding of land dynamics at multiple spatial, temporal and organizational scales, and helps to reveal the full range of inputs of different forms of capital, and also the importance of human–environment relationships in the production of ecosystem goods and services. Third, the nature of different goods and services produced from land, and the sources of these goods as they relate to agricultural land systems and land management are reviewed, using examples based on farming in Scotland. This provides an understanding of ecosystem services that are based on land and land management, and emphasizes the roles of human activities in the delivery of ecosystem services. It (i) discusses the human processes by which ecosystem services are realized in land

 

10 Adaptation of Mixed Crop–Livestock Systems in Asia

PDF

10

Adaptation of Mixed Crop–

Livestock Systems in Asia

Fujiang Hou

State Key Laboratory of Grassland Agro-Ecosystem, China

College of Pastoral Agriculture Science and Technology,

Lanzhou University, China

10.1 Introduction

The mixed farming system combining crop and livestock production, which usually is based on the interaction of arable crops such as forage crop, grain crop and oil crop, rangeland, woodland and livestock, is the dominant agricultural system of the world.

It produces about half of the world’s food

(Herrero et al., 2010) and makes the largest contribution to the food supply of humans.

The production system uses 90% of the total cropland, feeds 70% of sheep and goats and produces 88.5% of beef, 88% of milk, 61% of pork and 26% of poultry meat (Seré and Steinfeld, 1996; Blackburn, 1998).

Approximately 84% of the total agricultural population is involved in the operation of mixed farming systems in developing countries (Blackburn, 1998). As one of the biggest developing areas, the situation in

 

11 Enhancing Climate Resilience of Cropping Systems

PDF

11

Enhancing Climate Resilience of

Cropping Systems

Heidi Webber,1 Helena Kahiluoto,2 Reimund

Rötter2 and Frank Ewert1

1University of Bonn, Institute of Crop Science and Resource

Conservation (INRES), Crop Science Group, Bonn, Germany;

2MTT Agrifood Research Finland, Plant Production Research,

Mikkeli, Finland

11.1 Introduction

How cropping systems will be impacted by the combination of rising temperatures, changing rainfall, more frequent extreme events and elevated CO2 is highly uncertain

(Tubiello et al., 2007; Osborne et al., 2013).

The attribution of changes in crop productivity to climate change is difficult due to concurrent developments in technology and management (Howden et al.,

2007; IPCC, 2010) which occur in response to many sociocultural, environmental and market factors (Smit and Skinner, 2002;

Mertz et al., 2009). However, growing evidence suggests that at a regional scale, crop phenology (e.g. Siebert and Ewert,

2012) and yields (e.g. Lobell et al., 2011) have already been impacted by increasing temperatures and days with extreme high temperatures (e.g. Reidsma et al., 2009;

 

12 Shaping Sustainable Intensive Production Systems: Improved Crops and Cropping Systems in the Developing World

PDF

12

Shaping Sustainable Intensive

Production Systems: Improved

Crops and Cropping Systems in the Developing World

Clare Stirling,1 Jon Hellin,2 Jill Cairns,3 Elan

Silverblatt-Buser,2 Tadele Tefera,4 Henry Ngugi,2

Sika Gbegbelegbe,4 Kindie Tesfaye,5 Uran

Chung,2 Kai Sonder,2 Rachael A. Cox,2 Nele

Verhulst,2 Bram Govaerts,2 Phillip Alderman2 and

Matthew Reynolds2

1International

Maize and Wheat Improvement Center

(CIMMYT), Wales, UK; 2International Maize and Wheat

Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Mexico, DF, Mexico;

3International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center

(CIMMYT), Harare, Zimbabwe; 4International Maize and Wheat

Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Nairobi, Kenya; 5International

Maize and Wheat Improvement Centre (CIMMYT), Addis

Ababa, Ethiopia

12.1 Introduction

Population growth will reach nearly 9 billion by 2050. Crop production will need to increase by approximately 100% from 2005 to 2050 levels (Tilman et al., 2011) because of this growth in population, as well as global changes in diet and the increasing use of bioenergy (Godfray et al., 2010). Maize and wheat are critical for global food security and poverty reduction. Maize and wheat, together with rice, provide at least 30% of food calories to about 4.5  billion people in

 

13 The Role of Modelling in Adapting and Building the Climate Resilience of Cropping Systems

PDF

13

The Role of Modelling in

Adapting and Building the

Climate Resilience of Cropping

Systems

Helena Kahiluoto,1 Reimund Rötter,1 Heidi

Webber2 and Frank Ewert2

1MTT

Agrifood Research Finland, Plant Production Research,

Mikkeli, Finland; 2University of Bonn, Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation (INRES), Crop Science Group,

Bonn, Germany

13.1 Introduction

Historical weather records show (Coumou and Rahmsdorf, 2012) and climate models predict (Rummukainen, 2012; see, also

Rummukainen, Chapter 1, this volume) that global warming is driving changes in rainfall and increasing the frequency and severity of extreme events. Extreme events, together with extreme impacts resulting from warming in areas where crops are currently grown at or beyond their temperature thresholds (Schlenker and Lobell, 2010;

Hatfield et al., 2011), make cropping even more risky than it already is at present

(Rötter et al., 2013a). Given that reliable and affordable food is central to human wellbeing and the stability of societies, it will be paramount to adapt cropping systems effectively to climate change and simultaneously develop and utilize their considerable mitigation potential (Smith and

 

14 Agroforestry Solutions for Buffering Climate Variability and Adapting to Change

PDF

14

Agroforestry Solutions for

Buffering Climate Variability and

Adapting to Change

Meine van Noordwijk,1 Jules Bayala,1 Kurniatun

Hairiah,2 Betha Lusiana,1 Catherine Muthuri,1

Ni’matul Khasanah1 and Rachmat Mulia1

1World

Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), Bogor, Indonesia;

University, Malang, Indonesia

2Brawijaya

14.1 Introduction

This chapter will focus on increasing the adaptive capacity of agricultural systems in tropical and subtropical regions through agroforestry. Agroforestry as a concept resists and tries to counteract the way agriculture has been segregated from forests and forestry. Understanding, using and improving agroforestry implies a focus on the interactions between trees, annual crops and domestic stock, given the local abiotic factors of climate, soils, water and nutrient balances, as well as the biotic context (pests, diseases, antagonists, predators, pollinators and dispersal agents), and the use of land, external inputs, labour and knowledge. We pose and review the hypothesis that the presence of trees increases the degree of buffering of climate variability from the perspective of an annual food crop, and that retention and the increase of trees in agricultural landscapes can be a relevant part of climate change adaptation strategies.

 

15 Channelling the Future? The Use of Seasonal Climate Forecasts in Climate Adaptation

PDF

15

Channelling the Future? The Use of Seasonal Climate Forecasts in

Climate Adaptation

Lauren Rickards,1 Mark Howden2 and Steven

Crimp3

1Melbourne

Sustainable Society Institute, The University of

Melbourne, Carlton, Australia; 2CSIRO Climate Adaptation

Flagship and Ecosystem Sciences, Canberra, Australia

15.1 Introduction

More than ever before, contemporary life is characterized by growing recognition of the day-to-day risks associated with everyday living and a preoccupation with managing this risk (Giddens, 1991; Beck, 1992, 2008).

Underpinning this awareness is the reported expansion, propagation and intensification of the risks associated with anthropogenic climate change. New fragilities are emerging as modern systems become more complex; causes and effects are cascading as feedback loops lengthen and tighten (Rockström et al., 2009; Galaz et al., 2012). Our concern with the risk-saturated nature of our modern lives is also increasing as a result of our growing awareness and knowledge of it.

 

16 Agricultural Adaptation to Climate Change: New Approaches to Knowledge and Learning

PDF

16

Agricultural Adaptation to

Climate Change: New

Approaches to Knowledge and

Learning

Julie Ingram

Countryside and Community Research Institute, University of

Gloucestershire, Gloucester, UK

16.1 Introduction

A better understanding of how agricultural adaptation can be supported is needed if practices and systems such as those proposed in the preceding chapters are to be utilized effectively. In particular, it is important to understand how the flow of knowledge can be enhanced to support and enable adaptation. It has become clear that complex problems like climate change, and the uncertainty associated with them, require adaptive solutions and a focus on resilience at the farm level. The centrality of knowledge in formulating these solutions is apparent, both with respect to providing technological solutions and valid scientific information and to facilitating farmer learning and strengthening the adaptive capacity of farmers, institutes and communities

(IAASTD, 2009).

This chapter focuses on knowledge needs for farm-level agricultural adaptation.

 

17 What are the Factors that Dictate the Choice of Coping Strategies for Extreme Climate Events? The Case of Farmers in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia

PDF

17

What are the Factors that Dictate the Choice of Coping Strategies for Extreme Climate Events? The

Case of Farmers in the Nile

Basin of Ethiopia

Temesgen Tadesse Deressa

Guest Scholar, Africa Growth Initiative, Global Economy and

Development, Brookings Institute, Washington, DC, USA

17.1 Introduction

Droughts in Ethiopia can reduce household farm production by up to 90% of a normal year’s output (World Bank, 2003) and lead to the death of livestock and humans. The recorded history of drought in Ethiopia dates back to 250 bc. Since then, droughts have occurred in different parts of the country at different times (Webb and von

Braun, 1994). Studies show that the frequency of drought has increased over the past few decades, especially in the lowlands

(Lautze et al., 2003; NMS, 2007). In addition to drought, floods and hailstorms also reduce yields significantly during excessively rainy seasons.

In response to these natural calamities, farmers in Ethiopia have developed different coping strategies. Several studies have identified the primary coping strategies employed by farmers during extreme climate events, especially drought. The country-level study conducted by the Ministry of Finance and Economic Development (MoFED, 2007) on the ability of farmers to cope with shocks revealed that the main coping strategies included the sale of animals, loans from relatives, the sale of crop outputs and cash savings. A study by Belay et al. (2005) revealed that arid and semi-arid pastoralists in Ethiopia temporarily migrated, adopted

 

Details

Print Book
E-Books
Slices

Format name
PDF
Encrypted
No
Sku
B000000035585
Isbn
9781780642901
File size
7.05 MB
Printing
Allowed
Copying
Allowed
Read aloud
Allowed
Format name
PDF
Encrypted
No
Printing
Allowed
Copying
Allowed
Read aloud
Allowed
Sku
In metadata
Isbn
In metadata
File size
In metadata